Strategic Inflection Points: Myth, History and Russian Foreign Policy

    
Theoretically, an inflection point is an intersection on a curve, where the curve changes its direction. Two characteristics of an inflection point are that the change is caused by an outside agent (hence my use of the word ‘intersection’), and that the change of direction is dramatic, if not opposite, to the previous [...]

Can structured methodology reduce intelligence failure?

If there is one single common “concept” that occupies the minds of all four authors, Jervis, Betts, Marrin and Clemente, this “concept” would be uncertainty. All four authors present their views on uncertainty applied to intelligence analysis, with varying degrees of optimism, pessimism and fatalism. It seems that uncertainty has become quite a fashionable concept, [...]

A Business Metaphor in the Context of National Security

Applying a business metaphor to intelligence processes in the national security context is not only valid, but I would like to argue, also desirable. In reading Allen’s take on the business analogy, it seems that he is rather averse to this proposition. His first contra argument is that, unlike business, the government cannot be responsive [...]

New Advanced Analytical Techniques Course - opportunity for collaboration

           
I’ve just started the last course of the Mercyhurst Applied Intelligence Analysis Program, which deals with the application of various structured methodologies to the analysis process. I’ve had to select a particular technique to work for in the following 2 months in relations to a topic that is of national security concern.
My chosen [...]

Kosovo - one month old

 The first month of independence has mostly gone well, but violence in Mitrovica yesterday shows that the opponents of independence can still threaten the new state and that there is a risk that Serbian-inspired partition will harden and Kosovo become a frozen conflict.
This, and more in International Crisis Group briefing  from Pristina.
Also of interest on [...]

In Defense of Open Source Intelligence

While intelligence academic courses and free range journalists are busy educating students and informing the general public of the benefits of open source intelligence, few intel agencies are ready to stop talking the talk and start walking the walk.
This article, for example, from the age.com.au exposes the unwillingness of the Australian intelligence community to give [...]

Crisis alerts for Armenia, deteriorating situation in Darfur, conflict resolution opportunity for Cyprus

The new Crisis Watch report was just released, identifying 12 actual or potential conflict situations around the world that deteriorated in February.
Among those is Armenia, where 11 days of protests after allegedly rigged presidential elections have resulted in a violent crackdown, a declared state of emergency and mobilization of the armed forces. 
Timor-Leste saw attacks on [...]