Scenario Planning as Part of Strategy Development

In my daily work, I hear the phrase “strategic planning” with such frequency that it has become by now a signal for “switching off”, i.e. stop paying attention…here we go again…not another strategy…and not the same strategy with different words, please! What a relief to read something actually intelligently written, like Conway’s article “Scenario Planning: [...]

Crisis Alert for Zimbabwe, Tibet and Kosovo; Conflict Resolution Opportunities for Comoros Islands, Cyprus, Pakistan, Taiwan Strait

Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in March 2008, and four improved, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch. Controversial early results of Zimbabwe’s 29 March presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections have put President Mugabe under pressure to resign. Protests in Tibet turned violent on 14 March and unrest spread to [...]

Crisis alerts for Armenia, deteriorating situation in Darfur, conflict resolution opportunity for Cyprus

The new Crisis Watch report was just released, identifying 12 actual or potential conflict situations around the world that deteriorated in February.
Among those is Armenia, where 11 days of protests after allegedly rigged presidential elections have resulted in a violent crackdown, a declared state of emergency and mobilization of the armed forces. 
Timor-Leste saw attacks on [...]

Joint LFAR: Energy Security in the Former Soviet Union

Read joint LFAR here: energy-security-fsu.pdf
Authors: Aimee Blanchard, Shelly Downes, Yana Feldman, Linda Popova
With an enormous sigh of relief and satisfaction, I’m happy to announce that I’ve just finished my second intel course. The course focused on written communication in intelligence and explored various reporting formats: INTSUMs (intelligence summaries), SFARs (short form analytical reports), writing under [...]

LFAR: Energy Security and the “New Great Game” in Central Asia: the Case of Kyrgyzstan

Executive Summary: The interest of the great powers and emerging competitors such as China and India in the resource rich Central Asian states are very likely to continue and increase over the next 12 months. Kyrgyzstan is likely to benefit from increased interest in its hydroelectric sector, attracting foreign direct investment from Russia, China, [...]

INTSUM: Privatization of the Kyrgyz Electricity Industry Likely to Hit Hardest the Poor

 IWPR (Bishkek) 25 January 2008
Plans to privatize Kyrgyzstan’s electricity industry are under way, after President Bakiyev’s statement that the only way to bring more money into the sector is through privatization. He and his officials believe that Kyrgyzstan can become self-sufficient in energy as privatization would help with renovating derelict Soviet equipment and with the [...]

WEF Global Risks 2008 Report Adopts Vocabulary from Complexity and Systemics

 WEF is convening its annual session in Davos next week (24-26Jan), and have just put online their 2008 risk assessment report, which covers the topics that will be discussed at the various panels.
The report is very interesting, not least because of the 2nd appendix, which features a table of predicted risks and their likelihood and [...]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Black Swan – a Brilliantly Irreverant Attack on Bildungsphilisters*

For some time now I have had a second-hand exposure to Black Swan theory but this weekend I came face-to-face with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s brilliant writing – a most hedonistic Saturday and Sunday, when uninterrupted by worldly social or work distractions, save a short school assignment, I read Taleb’s The Black Swan cover to cover.
“Erudite” [...]

INTSUM: Afghanistan – a New Migration Destination for Kyrgyz Workers

While the majority of Kyrgyz economic migrants still seek better opportunities in the booming economies of northern neighbors Russia and Kazakhstan, some are turning instead to conflict-ridden Afghanistan, where higher security risks are compensated with higher wages. A major source of employment for south-bound Kyrgyz migrants are US private contractors in Afghanistan. The US State [...]

Deteriorating situation in Kyrgyzstan, conflict risk alert in Kenya and Pakistan, conflict resolution opportunity for DR Congo

According to Crisis Watch report Nr.53 from 2 January 2008, Kyrgyzstan is listed among the countries where the situation has sharply deteriorated following the widely criticized 16 December elections. Other countries on this list are Algeria, Basque County (Spain), Chad, Kenya, Lebanon, and Pakistan.
Nepal, on the other hand, is listed as a country, where the situation has [...]