ISN Security Watch Prognosis for 2008

Security Watch, the news and current affairs analysis service of the International Relations and Security Network (ISN)  has published a detailed political forecast for 2008. The prognosis is a collaborative initiative of independent journalists, academic researchers and Security Watch correspondents from various parts of the world, and is coordinated by the ISN.

Featured Topics:

1. Defining moment for the Balkans – likely bloodshed following independence proclamation in Kosovo

2. Middle East 2008: A fallow year – possible effects of US 2008 elections on multiple Middle East conflicts

3. Africa: Points of (no) return – peacekeeping forces unlikely to contain and stop violence in Darfur, Somalia, eastern Congo, North and South Sudan, and northern Uganda

4. Another assertive Kremlin – likelihood of political uncertainty after the March 2008 presidential elections

5. South Asia: Dangerous democracy deficit – radicalization of politics and failure of parliamentary democracy likely to escalate decay of political institutions

6. LA: Alliences, friction and global access – how shifts in alliances in Latin America are likely to influence regional and global trade and economic ties

7. Caucasus, Central Asia: Sad predictability – what impacts will the pattern of electing single-party systems have on regional stability

8. Iraq, Afghanistan: Conflict and quagmire – impacts of 2007 developments on possible ways of conflict resolution

9. Energy and political risk in 2008 – high energy prices, volatile markets and geopolitical risks

10. EU: Creeping confidence – what chances does the EU have to position itself as a pillar in the global economic arena

11. Finance: From the West to the Rest – emerging markets likely to accelerate profound shift in the distribution of financial power